So many organisations and individuals involved in telecommunications continue to use the term 'exponential' to describe the growth in internet traffic, whether carried on fixed networks, or on wireless. Reports such as the ITU.M... forecast continued exponential growth until 2030 and there are numerous publications that cite growth following an exponential curve. But (with the possible expansion of the universe), nothing grows forever, let alone exponentially.

Let's consider the implications of exponential growth in internet data traffic. According to various sources, the amount of data transferred over the internet in 2018 will reach 1 Zettabyte (or 8x10²¹ bits). If growth continues exponentially at current rates (e.g. around a 50% year-on-year increase), the following things will happen:

• By 2161, the number of bits of data transferred across the internet will equal the number of atoms in a human body.
• By 2229, the number of bits of data transferred across the internet will equal the number of atoms in the planet Earth.
• By 2270, the number of bits of data transferred across the internet will equal the number of atoms in the Solar system.
• By 2329, the number of bits of data transferred across the internet will equal the number of atoms in the Milky Way galaxy (excluding dark matter).

This is to say nothing of the electrical power requirements. Based on current future expectations of the energy required to transfer a bit of data (around 1 picoJoule per bit), by around 2080 we would need every single Watt of power generated on the planet Earth today to keep the Internet's lights on (let alone the problems of the sizes of batteries that would be needed in mobile devices). By 2113, we would need to capture every milliWatt of power that the Sun emits in order to power the Internet (in essence building a Dyson sphere). Slowly but surely the exponential growth in Internet traffic would begin to consume the whole universe.

It is therefore to be hoped that the universe is actually infinite and continues to expand (though opinions on this are divided), otherwise it will run out of power before our insatiable demand for watching cat videos is finally sated.

You might wonder what all this has got to do with radio spectrum, as there's always a Wireless Waffle angle on that topic. The simple fact is that although all the energy on the planet may be consumed keeping the Internet going, the amount of radio spectrum required to deliver the speed of connection necessary to transfer that much data will consume all available frequencies far before 2080. This is, of course, the desired goal of the mobile industry!

As Professor Albert Bartlett of the University of Colorado so aptly puts it:

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.

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